Archive for the 'Investing' Category



The Yield Curve and the Global Macro Investor

Posted By Dagny Taggart on May 28, 2009 @ 8:15 am
by Peter Howard

The yield curve is one of the most and best used instruments in the global macro investors arsenal. The yield curve is usually thought of as a bond traders tool but good global macro trader know better. You can use the yield curve to trade bonds, stocks, currencies, and really just about anything that affects the economy, heck you can even use to for refinancing your home.

The Treasury yield curve is the curve you get when you plot out the yields for different maturities. For instance if the 90-day T-Bill is at .2 percent and the 10-year T-Note is yielding 3.5 percent you have an up sloping yield curve as the long dated Treasuries are paying a higher yield then the short dated Treasuries. Usually you would also plot out the two year, five year, and thirty year along with the ninety day and ten year. This will give you a better picture for what the yield curve is really saying.

So how do you apply the yield curve to your trading? Well there are a few main rules of thumb. An upwards sloping yield curve is typically bullish for the economy and stocks, whereas a downwards sloping or inverted yield curve is typically bullish for bonds.

So how does this help your trading? Well if the curve is steep then there is little chance that bonds will be able to stage a very robust rally. At the same time it might be a great time to go long stocks. If the curve is sloping down then it is a harbinger of things to come and the economy is ready to contract and therefore it is kind of a sell signal for stocks. At the same time if the curve is inverted then it is a great time to look at going long bonds as the Fed will likely begin a interest rate easing cycle and therefore driving up bond prices.

If money is expensive then the economy will have a hard time expanding. If money is expensive for banks then they will not lend very much as they are not making money off of it. If money is cheap then the economy can grow easier as banks will lend and businesses will borrow more to expand and to spend.

Think of bonds and interest rates as a teeter totter where yields are on one side and bonds are on the other. If bonds go down, rates go up. If rates go down, bonds are going up. In a regular inflationary environment this is always the case unless there is a severe credit quality issue.

So anytime that you see either of these events happen the global macro investor can start to look for an entry point to either buy or to sell bonds and stocks. If the curve is inverted then you will likely want to start buying bonds and selling stocks as the act of lowering rates will cause bonds to go up. After bonds have gone up and it looks like the Fed is done lowering rates it is worthwhile to look at stocks as the next beneficiary of the rate cuts as businesses can now borrow cheaper and therefore expand faster.

Nothing is perfect and nothing works all the time. Any good global macro investor knows that to have long term success without blowing up you will need to use proper risk control gauges as well as other tools in your analysis. The yield curve is smart but it is not all knowing.

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Learning All About Forex Currency Trading

Posted By Jake Patton on @ 7:43 am
by Jake Patton

It is perfectly understandable that people hate the idea of going to the workplace for 9-5 job and much prefer working from home. They think that forex currency trading would give them this desired break and hence they wish to learn how to do that.

It’s a common scenario: in a job you hate and then you hear of people making a good living. In my case I heard via the internet of trading forex. I was interested and after a little research it seems like a no brainer.

Most of these people trading forex quite often are like empty vessels making a lot of noise. Only a few are successful and one should be aware of the fact that he may not become one of those handfuls.

The statistics for forex trading are pretty bleak: 95% of forex traders are losing money. So does that mean its difficult to learn forex currency trading and frankly a waste of time anyway? Maybe not.

It’s just that lots of people plunge in without a thought. They treat forex like a game of chance in a casino, a gamble that they hope they’ll be lucky enough to win. Figure out where a currency is going, and hope. That’s a losing strategy.

Forex isn’t “playing”, a word often erroneously used by traders to describe their activities. I’m playing with a hundred grand, they’ll say. Is it any wonder they’re not successful? Their frivolous attitude, the way they approach their trades, is not conducive to success.

People love a short cut and easy ways to make money. Wouldn’t it be great to have one of these charting packages that do the thinking for you and the software does all the work, telling you when to buy and sell? Unfortunately reality isn’t that easy.

Indeed, this whole idea of forex trading from home looks lucrative, but most of people are unsuccessful and the losers.

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Do You Know These Mutual Fund Basics?

Posted By Jane Calhoun on @ 4:26 am
by Jane Calhoun

Even after we’ve suffered a downturn in the market, mutual funds are still popular investments. They offer a way to diversify, are professionally managed, and are easy to buy and sell. In the recent past, mutual funds have been thought of as nearly a no-lose investment, but now that we know that’s not always the case, learning about mutual funds basics can help avoid these kinds of losses in the future.

There are thousands of mutual funds available, literally more than 10,000 are traded on the market. Together, all mutual funds have succeed in attracting $4 trillion dollars of investments! It’s still possible to profit with mutual funds, but you should understand the basics to know how safe they are for you.

Mutual funds have been popular as a result of great returns over part of the last few decades. Up until 2008, these vehicles were thought to provide diversification, safety and solid returns for the long run. They are easy to buy and sell, and have been thought to be less risky than other investments.

As a mutual fund is set up, the fund raises investment cash from investors, then uses that money to invest in stocks, bonds, and other securities that are a proper fit for the objective of the fund. Within the fund there is nearly always than a single individual investment. When the value of those investments goes up, or goes down for that matter, its investors also see a gain or a loss. When a fund pays out a dividend to shareholders, the investors get their fair share too. In addition, you can find that funds are well managed by professional advisors.

Mutual funds are designed as special types of corporations, which are allowed by charter to combine funds receied form investors, and invest that pool os cash for the whole group, based on the defined objectives of the fund. To raise investment capital there is an offering of shares of the fund to be sold to the general public, just as any public company wolud seek to sell stock on the market. Then the funds take the proceeds from selling shares and use it to purchase a variety of investments, such as stocks, bonds, derivatives, or money market instruments.

Shareholders investing in shares of the fund receive a proportional share position in the mutual fund. Literally the shareholders each have ownership of a piece of the securities within the fund. Generally speaking, shareholders are permitted to freely sell any fund shares they own at any time, with the price to be determined by the daily price fluctuations in the share price, based on the performance of the investments.

Often you’ll find that investors will select a mutual fund based solely on the mutual fund performance in the past year or years, or they might go with a tip from a friend or family member, or even make a decision to buy based on articles they read or se or the Internet. While these are frequently usd ways to select funds it is also risky, since there is no analysis of the fund itself and whether it might be appropriate for that investor.

Each individual mutual fund has characteristics unique to it, such as its performance history, the philosophy of the management, specific investment objectives and so on. Your choice should be based on how you have designed your overall financial plan, and not just the past performance of the fund. It’s best to determine your individual goals first, including your personal financial priorities, what investment resources you have available to invest, and how much risk you are comfortable with. You will also want to include a timeframe for achieving your goals.

Everyone likes to talk about the super star funds, the high fliers that had double digit annual returns, to which everyone flocked with their cash. Today, we are a bit more realistic, and know that what comes up, can easily come down again. So, hopefully, you’ve learned that the performance of a fund is not the most important metric. Instead, examine the returns in the perspective of the underlying investments, and whether they are good long term investments. Don’t forget that past performance is never any guarantee of future results. Start out by looking at other mutual funds on the market which are in categories that match your overall strategy, whether it be bond funds, growth funds, equity income funds, etc.

By learning more about mutual fund basics like there, you are helping to minimize your loss in the market, by knowing more about what exactly you’re holding. Use these ideas to analyze which investments, if any, will lay the strongest part of your investment foundation.

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Tips to Avoid Forex Blog Scams

Posted By Andrew Michael on April 16, 2009 @ 3:18 am
by Andrew Michael

There is a lot of forex trading information in forex forums. However, it can also be a great resource for a determined forex scam artist. Many of them are likely to not only have a fake forex trading system but their own forex blog.

If you go a day online without seeing an advert for the latest and best forex system, then you are lucky. Every day seems to be a new day with a forex product that is going to turn anyone without trading experience into an instant forex millionaire. All for $39.

Nearly every forex trader has believed these promises. A majority however, have not been able to replicate any of these profitable forex trading results and have ended up losing a large amount of money. It does not have to be that way.

Trading the currency market should be approached like any other business. You should never take it like a get rich scheme as this leads you straight to a new forex scam. Those that have succeeded have understood that they will have to make the same effort as setting up a new business.

A forex blog that is run by a scammer rarely has any new information to offer. They are mainly a rehash of what someone else has said. Forex trading is a fluid endeavour. two traders will see something different in a trade. A scammer on the other hand will just copy and paste from another persons website.

It is true that there are some forex trading terminology that you may have to learn. That however does not mean that you blindly follow a forex blogger who cannot speak in plain English. A good forex trader should be able to explain to anyone how they came to make a decision to make a trade.

It is true that you should never believe everything that you see. This is especially true of forex trading screenshots that you find online. Many are just created on someones computer and are totally false. You should also be very wary of forex videos that claim the same.

There are many more forex scamming tricks out there. Some fake forex traders are so good that they have a habit of creating other websites to promote their own fake forex blog. One is so adept at this that he has become a household name using this method.

You are bound to have periods when you just cannot seem to make any profits. What is untrue is a forex trader who never seems to make losses. Believe me, such a trader would be head hunted by George Soros. So be wary of forex blogs that show winning trades each and every day.

Before you start making your first million dollars trading the forex market, you should be ready for some interesting times. You will sacrifice your time and funds in order to learn how to be profitable. Once you get rid of the get rich quick mentality, you will find that online currency trading is a very profitable endeavour.

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Start Investing in the Stock Market

Posted By Pam Honor on April 9, 2009 @ 5:14 am
by Pam Honor

Don’t let the stock market scare you. It’s not as intimidating as it may seem. You can make a lot of money with the stock market, so make sure you take advantage of it for all it’s worth.

So then, why should you invest in stocks? Because you will never make as much money investing as you will if you start investing in stocks right now. If you want to make money in stocks, you need as much time and money as possible.

If you start investing now, you will have more time for investing than if you start tomorrow or in one, five, ten, or more years. Your money will have more time to earn and compound if you start right away.

When you are ready to start investing, begin by studying up on stocks, the stock market, and investing as a whole. You don’t want to just throw your money anywhere. If you do this, you could end up losing money.

When investing in stocks, you need to know how to do correct research. This is of utmost importance. It is the research behind your stocks that you will need in order to make good investment decisions.

Another important aspect of investing is to be sure you are well diversified. If you invest all your money in one company, you are increasing your risk way more than necessary. If that company goes bankrupt or even just lose some value, your entire portfolio is negatively effected.

Invest in several different corporations that are in different industries. Do some research and learn about which industries would make up a diversified portfolio. Also, always keep some money in cash just in case their is stock you want to buy.

If you only get one good piece of information out if this, it should be that you know you should invest in the stock market. Don’t worry about the short term swings, understand that you will make money in the long term.

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Should you Start Investing in the Stock Market?

Posted By Pam Honor on @ 5:11 am
by Pam Honor

Don’t let the stock market scare you. It’s not as intimidating as it may seem. You can make a lot of money with the stock market, so make sure you take advantage of it for all it’s worth.

So then, why should you invest in stocks? Because you will never make as much money investing as you will if you start investing in stocks right now. If you want to make money in stocks, you need as much time and money as possible.

If you start investing today, you will have more time to let your money grow and multiply. Even if you wait a year or if you wait twenty years, you are giving up a lot of money that you could be earning and letting it compound.

You need to study and learn all you can about investing in stocks and investing in general before you start investing. If you aren’t sure you want to invest yet, that’s all the more reason to learn and study. You will learn about what you really should be doing.

When you are investing in stocks, you need to do your research first before making any purchases. This is very important and this step should not be skipped. You need to know how to differentiate between a good investment and a bad one.

Another important aspect of investing is to be sure you are well diversified. If you invest all your money in one company, you are increasing your risk way more than necessary. If that company goes bankrupt or even just lose some value, your entire portfolio is negatively effected.

Try to invest in at least 4 or 5, if not more, different companies and make sure they are in different industries as well. Read up on diversification and learn how to correctly diversify your portfolio. Also, keep some money in cash for future deals.

If there is one thing that you take out of this article, it should be that you understand the earning power of investing in the stock market. Sometimes the market will go down, but in the long run, you will build your wealth.

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Buying Mortgage Notes-Why Would A Lender of Bank Rep Sell?

Posted By Dean Engle on March 26, 2009 @ 3:39 am
by Dean Engle

Below is a question I got asked recently. I thought this was valuable info, so I am sharing it with you here:

“I have read all there is to know about lenders and their reasons to sell properties at discounts…

What I want to know specifically is what criteria do lenders base their decision on when selling their mortgage notes at discounts. With focuses on LMREP, it would benefit me tremendously if I was selling my services based on their criterias”.

Here is my response: First of all make sure that you are using the correct terms when trying to express your points. You need to differentiate the difference between mortagage notes and properties. You mentioned both in your question.

If you were speaking to a bank rep, they would know that your inexperienced. They would probably think that you’re a newbie that doesn’t know the difference between a deed of trust and a deed, this for certain would get you no repsonse from the bank.

A Tip on Buying Mortgage Notes

Study your lingo, and make sure you know it before you try contacting your lenders:

When buying mortgage notes, it can be tricky to find the right contact. So once you find them, you need to make a good first impression. You only get one chance.

Great information right?

A few reasons:

Reasons to Sell Mortgage Notes at the Institutional-Level

a) Selling notes is quick. Sometimes the banks need to clear their balance sheets or may be in the process of merging, in these instances they need to move fast.

b) their might be a relatioship between the borrower and the bank, or some kind of other circumstance.

c) the bank may not want “bad press” and might be under to pressure not take aggressive recovery actions like foreclosure against the borrowers. An example would be minority first time home buyers.

d) bank may not want to actually take borrowers to sale, though having no trouble with foreclosure procedures. (I’ve often found myself in the position of buying mortgage notes from a bank 1 week prior to sale because they didn’t want to be seen carrying out the actual foreclosure)

3) sometimes the warranty cover/expense is not worth the hassle when the loan is upside down, especially when the loan amounts are so small. (when buying notes, these types of deals are a great opportunity)

f) In order to see what the market would pay for these loans, banks may price a part of its non performing book and send it out.

Reasons to Sell Mortgage Notes at the Individual Reps

a) loss mitigation rep is “sick” of dealing with a particular borrower. Never follows through on reinstatement promise/swears at loss mitigation rep/ticks rep off

b) borrower is non-responsive, no contact

c) long foreclosure state/process

e) the rep doesn’t want to go above their head to get an approval for a write off or mortgage note sale. So they sell at their authroziation level or at the direct managers.

f) the rep might be shooting for their monthly bonus and sell off some mortgage notes to reach this. Sometimes it could just be a matter of meetin a monthly quota.

I hope you found this information useful.

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Pros and Cons of Managed Forex

Posted By Justin Moxie on March 13, 2009 @ 3:21 am
by Ryan D. Moxie

Making a decision to get into a managed Forex account is a difficult one. It is a big decision just like any other investment you may decide to experience. The prime difference in this versus the others is that you have to sign what is called a margin agreement.

The leverage is actually borrowed money that the broker has given you. Because you are borrowing money you give them the right to close any trade as they need to protect themselves. If you agree to this then sign up and start trading.

Once you have decided and are ready to start there are three types of accounts you can get into: standard, mini, and managed. They each have their ups and downs and it is up to you to figure out which one is right for you.

1. Standard. This type of account is the most common. Basically you have access to a major amount of currency. The worth is $100,000. You do not have to put the $100,000 down in order to do trading. Basically, you need $1,000 in the account for t his to work.

Pros Service – Brokers provide perks and services for investors in this account. Potential to Gain – The pips equal $10 each and if you move position by 100 pips during a day, then you will actually gain $1,000.

Cons Capital – Their is a much higher requirement of capital to open an account as you will be trading large size trades. Losses – Because of the larger size of each trade your potential losses are also great just like the possible gains.

2. Mini – The mini account lets you trade much smaller lot sizes. Each lot on the mini account is only $10,000.

Pros The risk – Because you can trade much smaller lot sizes the risk is lower. This is ideal for those who are new to trading the Forex. It can also allow for you to try out new trading ideas with much lower risk. Capital – The amount of money to open an account can be as small as $250.

Con Reward is low – when you don’t risk much you don’t get much. This is a type of account for those beginning in the market.

3. Managed – A managed Forex account is where the capital in your account is yours but you do not have the decisions to buy or sell. Professional traders will place the trades for you.

Pro Pro trader – You will have an experienced trader who will be making the trading decisions for you. This means you do not have to watch the market all the time.

Cons Fees – You will be required to pay a fee of 20% to 50% of all the gains made on the account each month. Capital – Most managed accounts will have a minimum investment amount of $5,000 to as much as $100,000.

It is always wise to research as much as possible to see which option best fits your needs. Always remember it is your money and you have to be the one watching over it.

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The History of Challenge Coins

Posted By Christina Goldman on March 4, 2009 @ 5:37 am
by Christina Goldman

In today’s generation, Special Forces Challenge Coins continue to be the expression of the strong ties and solidarity among military units. They are popular among scout troops, police departments, fire departments, colleges, schools, and even church groups.

While steadily growing in popularity, many collectors do not know what Challenge Coins are, where they came from, or what their history is, in general. For those of you who are fascinated by these patriotic coins, here’s a abbreviated discussion about the History of Challenge Coins.

The History of Challenge Coins dates back to the World War I, where the volunteers of America filled up the freshly formed flying squadrons. Some of these volunteers came from wealthy families, mostly students from prestigious schools such as Harvard and Yale, who stopped during the middle term to join the World War. endure

In one of the squadrons, a rich lieutenant ordered emblems in solid bronze and conferred them to his own unit. One of the pilots placed the medallion emblem in a tiny leather pouch and wore it around his neck.

Just a couple of hours after the medallions were conferred; ground fire seriously damaged the aircraft of the pilot. He was compelled to set down just behind the enemy lines; thus, he was captured by one of the German patrols. The German threatened him and discouraged him to escape by taking all his personal belongings and identification, all except for one – the small pouch that was hanging around his neck.

Meanwhile, he was taken down to a French town a few kilometers away from the front line. Taking advantage of the situation, he managed to escape, without his personal effects and identification.

He succeeded to escape the Germans by disguising in civilian clothing at the front line. Although it was easy for him to run away from the patrols, he had a hard time crossing the no-man’s island, but eventually succeeded. He then stumbled upon the French outpost.

Unfortunately during that time, wreckers had been sabotaging the French sector and they were known to be dressed like civilians. The French people didn’t recognize the pilot’s American tongue and had mistaken him for a wrecker, so they were prepared to execute him. He didn’t have any personal identification to show and to prove that he wasn’t a wrecker. The only thing that he had was the pouch that contained the medallion.

He showed the medallion to them and one of the French captors recognized the insignia. After long deliberation, they released him. Now, the pilot was back to his squadron and the medallion became a tradition. It was then that the members of the squadron carried the medallion with them anywhere they went, thus giving birth to the Challenge Coins.

As the History of Challenge Coins continue, wearing of the medallion has become a challenge. This was accomplished in such a way that a challenger would ask a scion to show a medallion. If the scion being challenged could not show one, he would buy a drink for the challenger. This tradition continued throughout the world war and the succeeding years, up until today.

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Should I Invest in Bonds

Posted By Samantha Asher on February 23, 2009 @ 3:17 am
by Samantha A. Bow

You invest your money in stocks and bonds or lend money to someone else. All of these ways and others are different types of investments. You invest in order to make money. You can make money through earning interest, capital gains, or dividends which are essentially a part of the companies income.

Bonds, one of the most common types of investments, are loans from the lender to a corporation or a government. These corporations and governments use the money they raise from the loans to build their business and run the government.

Corporations and the government frequently issue bonds usually in $1,000 denominations. Savings bonds are issued in other denominations such as $50, $100, etc. You are probably most familiar with savings bonds because you might have received them for birthdays and gifts for other occasions.

When you buy a bond, you have a few different ways to earn money. The first way is the most obvious way which would be by earning interest. If you buy $10,000 in bonds at a 4% interest rates, you will get $400 a year. Sometimes you may be paid annually, semiannually, or all at once when the bond is repaid.

The second way to earn money from a bond is through paying a discount or premium. Paying a premium is actually going to cost you money, but if you have a high interest rate, it shouldn’t be a big deal. For example, you could buy a $1,000 bond for $950. You will be repaid $1,000 at the end which would give you a $50 profit in addition to the interest earned.

The third way you can make money with a bond is by trading them. You can trade bonds just like you can trade stocks. Bonds may mature anywhere from 6 months to 30 years and in that time you can sell them to others or buy them. If you sell them for more than what you paid, you will have made a profit.

A corporation is selling bonds with a face value of $1,000 for $960 each. You buy 20 of these bonds. They have an interest rate of 5% and mature in 10 years. You pay $19,200 for $20,000 worth of bonds. Each year you will receive $1,000 in interest. When it matures you will be repaid $20,000. You will have made $10,000 in interest and $800 from the discount for a total of $10,800.

You could have sold any amount of these bonds before maturity if anyone was willing to pay for them. Bonds are better off for those closer to retirement. Unless you are planning to invest in junk bonds and do a lot of trading, you will not make as much as you would in the stock market.

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